Vinny Muthal · REALTOR® · ReKonnection, LLC
DFW Market Pulse Week of September 21–25, 2026
Next issue Monday, Sept 28
Freddie Mac · MBA · NAR · NTREIS
Mortgage rates
30-year fixed average — Freddie Mac survey, week ending September 24, 2026. A year ago it was 6.30%. Adjustable rates are running nearly a full point below fixed.
0%3.5%7.03%
What each loan costs on a $390,000 home
| Loan | Rate | Last wk | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-yr fixed | 7.03% | 6.95% | $2,082 |
| 15-yr fixed | 6.42% | 6.26% | $2,704 |
| 5/1 ARM | 6.10% | 6.23% | $1,891 |
Monthly principal and interest on a $312,000 loan — 20% down on the August median North Texas sale price. Taxes and insurance are extra and run high here. The same 30-year payment a year ago at 6.30% was $1,931, so today's rate costs about $151 more a month on the same house, or roughly $28,000 less house for the same payment.
Fixed rates come from Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which stopped tracking ARMs in 2022; the ARM rate is the Mortgage Bankers Association's, week ending September 18. 9.8% of all applications that week were ARMs, up from 8.4% the week before — the highest share in years.
The local number
North Texas, August 2026
Single-family homes across the NTREIS service area, anchored by the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington metro.
| Metric | August 2026 | vs. last year |
|---|---|---|
| Median sold price | $390,000 | 0% |
| Average sold price | $509,071 | +1% |
| Sold price vs. list | 94.8% | — |
| Closed sales | 7,329 | −5% |
| Homes for sale | 31,072 | −6% |
| New listings | 10,219 | −10% |
| Months of inventory | 4.3 | — |
| Days on market | 58 | 0% |
The number to sit with is 94.8%. The typical August sale closed about five percent under its asking price — roughly $20,000 off a $390,000 list. Sellers are still getting last year's price, but they are getting it after a negotiation.
Attached homes are softer. Condos carry 8.7 months of inventory at a $252,500 median and sit 73 days; townhomes carry 5.9 months at $369,913 and sit 85 days. Both are slower markets than single-family, and both have more room to negotiate.
Renting a single-family home averaged $2,671 a month, up just 1% year over year, with 2.1 months of supply and 15% fewer rentals listed than last August. Rent growth has essentially stopped.
What it means for you
Three things worth acting on
Make the offer under list and ask for the buydown. The average August seller took 94.8% of asking after 58 days on market. Prices are flat year over year, so waiting costs you rate risk without buying you a discount — negotiate now instead.
Your competition thinned, but your buyers got pickier. New listings are down 10% and homes for sale down 6%, yet closed sales fell 5% and the median price didn't move. Price at the market on day one and budget for a concession rather than a price cut.
Ask your lender to price an ARM alongside the fixed. At 6.10% versus 7.03%, an adjustable saves about $191 a month on a $312,000 loan. Nearly one in ten applicants took that trade last week — it fits a five-year horizon, not a forever home.
National backdrop
How North Texas compares
National figures from NAR's August existing-home sales report, released September 10, 2026.
Existing-home sales ran at a 3.98 million annual pace in August, down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year ago. Pending contracts ticked up 0.3% for the month but remain 4.7% below last year. Across Texas, the statewide median held at $339,000 in the latest reported month, and Fort Worth–Arlington posted a fourth straight month of annual price gains while Dallas stayed softer. North Texas is cheaper than the country, tighter on inventory, and flat on price — a market that rewards negotiating on terms rather than waiting for a discount.
Two cautions on the comparison: the national figure is a median of existing homes nationwide, and months of supply is calculated differently by NAR and by NTREIS, so read the gap as direction rather than a precise margin.
Vinayak “Vinny” Muthal
REALTOR® · TX License #836704 · ReKonnection, LLC
Your DFW Real Estate Resource. Numbers like these only matter once they're applied to your street, your timeline, and your budget. Let's strategize your next move.